Fears of a March 2020 reprise will impact market sentiment and price action in the new trading week, as evidenced by big moves in COVID beneficiaries and casualties during Friday’s holiday-shortened U.S. session. A contrary strategy makes more sense at this point than chasing the fearful crowd, looking for fresh sell signals on pandemic cast-offs that include Peloton Inc. (PTON) and Zoom Video Communications Inc. (ZM) while waiting for tradable lows in travel and digital transaction plays, like United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) and Visa Inc. (V).
Dow component Salesforce Inc. (CRM) is the third strongest performer in the venerable index, gaining nearly 28% year-to-date. The stock broke out earlier this month above the rally peak posted after the company joined the index in August 2020 and pulled back to test new support during Friday’s rout. Tuesday’s post-market earning report should decide whether or not the breakout is sustainable, with the company expected to post a profit of $0.92 per-share on $6.80 billion in revenue.
Crypto assets are under pressure along with growth stocks after the Omicron news, illustrated by Bitcoin 10%+ decline to a 7-week low on Friday. However, lowly Shiba Inu held above Wednesday’s low during that session and has continued to trade above short-term support near $0.00003800 over the weekend. This bullish divergence could come into play because that price level also marks support at the .618 Fibonacci retracement of the powerful uptrend between October 2020 and October 2021.
Brick and mortar retailers got sold aggressively ahead of Black Friday, with popular chains that include Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) and Gap Inc. (GPS) reporting weak margins and issuing cautious outlooks. Taken together with the COVID threat, SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) could offer a low risk short sale opportunity with 10% to 20% short-term downside. Better yet, the fund just failed a breakout above the January peak near 100, potentially signaling a long-term top and significant change in trend.
The Natural Gas futures contract rose 8.48% on Friday while the Crude Oil contract fell more than 13%. This bullish divergence highlights growing shortages across Europe and Asia and the potential for the long-suffering commodity to break out above the 7-year high posted in October. Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) looks like an excellent way to play this long-term opportunity, with the stock trading at an all-time high after breaking out above 2014 resistance in the mid-80s in September.
For a look at this week’s economic events, check out our earnings calendar.
Disclosure: the author held Visa in a family account at the time of publication.