Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis
“What! $100K?” I hear you say. “You must be crazy! It will go to zero.” Well, I have been called worse, and no, it will not go to zero, in my opinion. Why? Over the past several weeks to months, I shared Bitcoin (BTC) would see “a more immediate downside setup to ~$25K … to complete the enormous 4th wave it is carving out before it is ready to rally to $100K+ for its next more significant 5th wave.” And last week, I concluded, “… look for a multi-day bounce back to ~$34+/-1K soon, with the lower end preferred, followed by a final stab lower to ~$24+/-1K.”
BTC bottomed at $25.8K and is now trading at around $30.0K. Thus, it is time to pull out the shorter-term Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) chart to assess better where exactly BTC is. Such daily detail helps keep my premium crypto trading members mainly on the right side because “the devil is in the details,” as they say. So what is good for them will undoubtedly help you too. See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Bitcoin daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
The c-wave is wrapping up its last 4th and 5th waves.
Last week it was “… time to start looking for that wave-iv bounce to ~$34+/-1K, which should be a multi-day event.” Figure 1 shows that (green) wave-4 is underway and should ideally subdivide into a last more minor (grey) minute-c wave to the ideal target zone of around $33K+/1K. Based on the more recent available price data, I have adjusted this target zone slightly lower.
Those who follow me regularly should know that because of the EWP, we know waves four and five come after the third wave. Thus, wave-3 is complete, and wave-4 is now underway. When it also completes, BTC should do one last stab lower for wave-5 to ideally ~$23+/-1K.
Bottom Line and BTC Price Forecast
Three weeks ago, I concluded, “The conditions are in place for a more direct route to the downside.” BTC complied, and the forecasted $25-27.5K region was reached. Moreover, last week I preferred to look for a multi-day bounce back to ~$34+/-1K. Also, this bounce is on track, and when complete, I still anticipate a final stab lower to ~$24+/-1K.
Based on the current price action, I have adjusted my target zones lower by $1000. Thus as BTC ticks off all the EWP-based boxes from the intermediate- to the short-term, it suddenly does not seem so crazy that it should tick off the “rally to $100K+” box longer-term. For now, I expect a bounce to $33+/-1K and the last 5th wave to $23+/-1K.