Back in late July 2018, Bitcoin (BTC) saw red for 7 consecutive days. The 7-day sell-off continued through to 4th August 2018 before a 1-day modest gain briefly paused the correction. Bitcoin (BTC) has not seen a 7-day losing streak since.
The 7-day pullback in 2018 saw Bitcoin (BTC) slide 17%, peak-to-trough. Further losses that followed eventually saw Bitcoin (BTC) flatten out at $3,200 levels in December 2018 before finding support.
That correction, start to finish saw Bitcoin (BTC) tumble by 61% before “The Breakout”. It was some breakout, which culminated in Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $64,800 levels in April 2021.
After having coughed up 61%, the extended rally delivered a 1,916% return, trough to peak. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin (BTC) fell for 6 consecutive months before the start of the breakout. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing the prospects of a 3-month losing streak, one that could be compared to the April thru June 2021 pullback.
Bitcoin (BTC) 2022
Since the 2018 reversal, largely driven by a marked pickup in regulatory chatter and activity, the crypto market has evolved. We have seen greater adoption and, more importantly, there is an acceptance that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. Talks of bubbles and comparisons to Dutch tulips have become infrequent.
There does appear to be one common theme between the pullback of 2018 and the current correction, however. At the turn of the year, we have seen a marked pickup in regulator chatter and activity.
Unlikely 2018, however, the market is also contending with COVID-19, inflation and a hawkish FED that is looking to curb inflationary pressures that it had once considered transitory.
The days of free money may be coming to an end but by historical standards it will take a considerable amount of time for the FED to return cash rates to “normal” levels.
At present, the Federal Funds Rate sits at just 0.08%. Looking at the FOMC Economic Projections from the December 2021 meeting, the median forecast for the FED Funds Rate is 0.9% for 2022 and 1.6% for 2023. The bigger question is, therefore, whether it is the prospects of a 0.9% FED Funds Rate that is hurting the market or chatter from regulators… The Economic Projections have the longer run rate at 2.5%.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
On Saturday, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.34% to end the day at $41,687. Once more, Bitcoin (BTC) found support at $40,500 to avoid a first visit to sub-$40,000 levels since September 2021.
More significantly, Bitcoin (BTC) also avoided matching the 7-day losing streak from back in 2018. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 13.5% in the 6 days to Friday’s close. While this may be a sizeable correction in the global equity markets, Bitcoin (BTC) investors have faced worse. On 12th March 2020, Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 39%.
With support kicking in at $40,500 levels, a move back through to $45,000 levels should shift sentiment. Key near-term, however, is avoiding sub-$40,000 levels. Such an outcome could see the investors begin to make comparisons to the 2018 sell-off.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was down by 0.25% to $41,583.